Vol 12, No 3

Ensemble prediction model of solar proton events associated with solar flares and coronal mass ejections

Xin Huang, Hua-Ning Wang, Le-Ping Li


Abstract An ensemble prediction model of solar proton events (SPEs), combining the information of solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), is built. In this model, solar flares are parameterized by the peak flux, the duration and the longitude. In addition, CMEs are parameterized by the width, the speed and the measurement position angle. The importance of each parameter for the occurrence of SPEs is estimated by the information gain ratio. We find that the CME width and speed are more informative than the flare’s peak flux and duration. As the physical mechanism of SPEs is not very clear, a hidden naive Bayes approach, which is a probability-based calculation method from the field of machine learning, is used to build the prediction model from the observational data. As is known, SPEs originate from solar flares and/or shock waves associated with CMEs. Hence, we first build two base prediction models using the properties of solar flares and CMEs, respectively. Then the outputs of these models are combined to generate the ensemble prediction model of SPEs. The ensemble prediction model incorporating the complementary information of solar flares and CMEs achieves better performance than each base prediction model taken separately.


Keywords solar proton events — Sun: flares — Sun: coronal mass ejections — methods: statistical — ensemble learning

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