Abstract A method is developed to calculate probability of collision. Based on geometric features of space objects during the encounter, it is reasonable to separate the radial orbital motions from those in the cross section for most encounter events that occur in a near-circular orbit. Therefore, the probability of collision caused by differences in both altitude of the orbit in the radial direction and the probability of collision caused by differences in arrival time in the cross section are calculated. The net probability of collision is expressed as an explicit expression by multiplying the above two components. Numerical cases are applied to test this method by comparing the results with the general method. The results indicate that this method is valid for most encounter events that occur in near-circular orbits.

Keywords methods: analytical — reference systems — catalogs — space vehicles — celestial mechanics

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