Vol 10, No 9

Forecast of the key parameters of the 24-th solar cycle

Oleg Vasilievich Chumak, Tatiana Viktorovna Matveychuk


Abstract To predict the key parameters of the solar cycle, a new method is proposed based on the empirical law describing the correlation between the maximum height of the preceding solar cycle and the entropy of the forthcoming one. The entropy of the forthcoming cycle may be estimated using this empirical law, if the maximum height of the current cycle is known. The cycle entropy is shown to correlate well with the cy- cle's maximum height and, as a consequence, the height of the forthcoming maximum can be estimated. In turn, the correlation found between the height of the maximum and the duration of the ascending branch (the Waldmeier rule) allows the epoch of the maximum, Tmax, to be estimated, if the date of the minimum is known. Moreover, using the law discovered, one can find out the analogous cycles which are similar to the cycle being forecasted, and hence, obtain the synoptic forecast of all main features of the forthcoming cycle. The estimates have shown the accuracy level of this tech- nique to be 86%. The new regularities discovered are also interesting because they are fundamental in the theory of solar cycles and may provide new empirical data. The main parameters of the future solar cycle 24 are as follows: the height of the maximum is Wmax = 95±20, the duration of the ascending branch is Ta = 4.5±0.5 yr, the total cycle duration according to the synoptic forecast is 11.3 yr.


Keywords Sun: solar activity — Sun: forecasts

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