Vol 7, No 3

Low Dimensional Chaos from the Group Sunspot Numbers

Qi-Xiu Li, Ke-Jun Li


Abstract We examine the nonlinear dynamical properties of the monthly smoothed group sunspot number Rg and find that the solar activity underlying the time series of Rg is globally governed by a low-dimensional chaotic attractor. This finding is consistent with the nonlinear study results of the monthly Wolf sunspot numbers. We estimate the maximal Lyaponuv exponent (MLE) for the Rg series to be positive and to equal approximately 0.0187±0.0023(month−1). Thus, the Lyaponuv time or predictability time of the chaotic motion is obtained to be about 4.46±0.5 years, which is slightly different with the predictability time obtained from Rz. However, they both indicate that solar activity forecast should be done only for a short to medium term due to the intrinsic complexity of the time behavior concerned.



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