Verification of a Similar Cycle Prediction for the Ascending and Peak Phases of Solar Cycle 23

Jia-Long Wang, Jian-Cun Gong, Si-Qing Liu, Gui-Ming Le, Yan-Ben Han, Jing-Lan Sun


Abstract Reviews of long-term predictions of solar cycles have shown that a precise prediction with a lead time of 2 years or more of a solar cycle remains an unsolved problem. We used a simple method, the method of similar cycles, to make long-term predictions of not only the maximum amplitude but also the smoothed monthly mean sunspot number for every month of Solar Cycle 23. We verify and compare our prediction with the latest available observational results.


Keywords Sun: sunspots --- solar-terrestrial relations

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